BLOG

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Barring a recession, it appears the US is running out of people...

We aren't. The chart is misleading.

The Wall Street Journal asks Is America Running Out of Unemployed People to Fill Jobs?

For every job opening in America, there’s now barely more than one unemployed person available to take it. In mid-2015, there were 2.3 million more unemployed people than open jobs. By January, the gap had narrowed to 372,000.

Pool of Potential Workers

There is a huge pool of workers as shown by the following Advisor Perspectives chart on the Labor Force Participation Rate.

In every age group except 55 and over, fewer people are working on a percentage basis than in 2000.

Many of them are not counted as "unemployed" even though they want a job. Why?

Wanting a job is not enough to be counted. Nor is looking for a job on Monster or other places. Before the BLS counts you as unemployed, you actually have to apply for a job, send out a resume. or have an interview.

Admittedly, many of those who are not working are unskilled. However, fast food places and most retail trade jobs do not require skills other than to show up for work on time and be polite to customers.

Aging Workforce

The biggest differences in that chart are in age groups 55-64 and 35-44.

Age group 35-44 constituted 27% of the labor force in 2000 but only 21% in 2017.

In contrast, age group 55-64 constituted 10% of the workforce in 2000 but 17% in 2007.

People are working longer and longer.

Most have to because they did not save enough for retirement. Also, companies like older workers who are on Medicare or have no dependents.

Overexpansion

Thanks to cheap Fed-sponsored financing, companies over-expanded.

Retail companies need employees even though they are getting their clocks cleaned by Amazon.

Such overexpansion accounts for much of the job needs.

Job Gain Recession?

If we have a recession, even a mild one, in which there are not significant job losses, the crush on earnings rates to be massive.

The lead chart suggests a different outcome.

We are nine years into an expansion, with the economy slowing, and the Fed intent on getting in three more hikes this year.

Take your pick. Either way, the market is hugely overpriced.